Pecan trees have male and female flowers, and both can be damaged by frost and freeze, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts. This picture, taken south of Stephenville on May 5, shows browning from a late April freeze to terminal tips where the female flowers are found. The long, pollen-bearing catkins shown survived or were only partially damaged. (Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service photo by Monte Nesbitt)
Because of significant damage from an April freeze along with other factors, it’s become difficult to estimate the size of the Texas pecan crop, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts.
But that doesn’t stop Monte Nesbitt, AgriLife Extension pecan and fruit specialist, College Station, from “going out on a limb,” and predicting a total Texas crop of 50 million to 55 million pounds.
These production levels, along with increased demand by Asian markets, will probably mean continued high prices for retail consumers this fall, especially for shelled pecans, he said.
Yield projections used to be much easier, according to Nesbitt. Pecan production used to vary from heavy one year to light the next year, then back to heavy, with the cycle repeating.
“Prior to 2009, we would look at a heavy year to be about 70 million to 75 million pounds total for the state, and we would expect 30 million pounds to be a weak production year,” he said. “The last two or three years, we’ve vacillated in the 35 million to 45 million pound range, and that’s been made up by some good production and some bad production across the state. So we’re kind of averaging out to the middle-of-the-range production, which would be 50 million pounds, and that’s what I expect this year.”
This year’s April freeze damaged pecans in the Panhandle, Far West Texas out to Fort Stockton, portions of the Midland/Odessa area and even into Central Texas, Nesbitt said.
“There was some regrowth after that, which included some new flowers, but there were questions of the pollination sequence being a little bit thrown off,” he said. “You overlay that with what we’ve had the last three years, which is drought and other problems in various parts of the state, and we’re in a pattern of ‘un-synchronicity,’ where we don’t have a true on-year or off-year.”
As for prices, the pecan market “is often a mystery to pecan growers themselves,” Nesbitt said. “But we expect very volatile wholesale prices, with prices very strong early in the season and extremely volatile later in the pecan marketing season.”
The June estimates for the overall U.S. pecan crop was 256 million pounds, Nesbitt noted.
Central: Thanks to abundant rains in June, rangelands were recovering. Some counties received as much as 10 inches of rain in the last week. However, weed competition was hindering recovery. Hay meadows, pastures and crops were looking very good. Livestock were also in good condition across the region. Water for stock ponds was still a concern in many locations, and the wet weather left lots of cut hay laying on the ground to cure. Though the rains went a long way to help crops and forages and refill stock-water tanks and creeks, the region remained behind normal rainfall for the year. Grasshoppers continued to be an issue in pastures and were beginning to move into corn and sorghum fields. Pecans had the heaviest nut set in several years, and already branches were being stressed with the load. Producers will have to thin the crop. Bees were swarming in high numbers. There were a few problems at pollination due to weather-related issues, but for the most part corn looked great. Producers continued to scout for sugarcane aphids in sorghum. Prior to the rains, they were spraying for aphids. Currently, headworms and other insect problems were on the rise, and producers may spray for many insects and not sugarcane aphids alone.
Coastal Bend: Most of the district received rain. Crops looked better than they have in years. Grain crops were being scouted for headworms and stinkbug activity. The grain sorghum harvest began in some areas, but was interrupted by rain. Cotton was in full bloom and expected to greatly benefit from the rains. Pastures should respond quickly as well. Cattle numbers were still low with market prices at historic highs.
East: Rain helped growing conditions in parts of the region. Rainfall amounts ranged from zero to 5.5 inches. Ponds and small lakes were full to overflowing. Rain halted hay harvesting in several counties. Some producers were working around the rain to get the hay baled so they could spray for weeds. Houston County reported the wet weather was interfering with cotton planting and that some corn was yellowing due to standing water in fields. Vegetable disease problems were also an issue due to continual cloudy and rainy weather. However, the vegetable and fruit harvests continued to be strong with good quality. Farmers markets were doing good business. Armyworms were reported in some areas. Cattle were in good to excellent condition. Horn fly populations were increasing rapidly. Grasshoppers continued to be a problem in Henderson County. Feral hogs were active.
Far West: Conditions remained hot and mostly dry throughout the district, with a few counties reporting storms with spotty showers. Culberson County reported 0.5 inch to 1.8 inches; Glasscock County 0.2 to 1 inch; and Presidio 2 to 4 inches. High winds accompanied the storms. Cotton continued to struggle in many areas, but crop conditions were good in El Paso County. Pastures improved, but burn bans in most counties were still in effect. Producers continued to supply supplemental feed for wildlife and livestock.
North: Topsoil moisture throughout the region was short to adequate. All but Lamar and Fannin counties reported between 1 inch to 3 inches of rain. Crops were in good condition. The wheat harvest was about 90 percent complete. Bermuda grass pastures were in the best condition seen for years. Livestock were in good condition. Hopkins County reported high grasshopper populations. Titus County reported increases of horn flies on livestock.
Panhandle: Temperatures were near or below average all week. Thunderstorms brought rain, from a trace to as much as 3 inches in isolated areas. Hail and high winds accompanied the storms in some areas. Soil moisture was rated mostly short to adequate. High winds in Collingsworth County caused sand burn on some cotton. Farmers were using tillage tools to make clods and try to save the crop from further sand burns. Deaf Smith County producers were fighting heavy weed infestations — and the weeds were reported to be winning. The recent rains have brought on weed seed that lay dormant for years. With the plentiful rains, the weeds are growing inches a day. In some areas, the hail and high winds wreaked havoc on corn and cotton. Disease and cold temperatures also negatively impacted some cotton. Weeds were also a problem for producers trying to harvest wheat. Some producers were spraying for weeds ahead of combining, while others were trying to get the wheat out before weeds totally took over the crop. The weeds aside, sorghum was looking good, though it was typically more than 10 days behind normal development. Hansford County also reported summer hail damage to cotton and corn. Rangeland and pasture continued to be rated mostly poor to very poor. Ochiltree County rangeland was greening up, but still a long ways from total recovery. Cattle continued to improve in condition, but numbers remained low. Horn flies were a problem in several areas.
Rolling Plains: Cotton continued to improve. However insects such as thrips and fleahoppers were concerns, as well as weed pressure. Rangeland and pasture also was improving, and cattle were looking better with the better grazing. Some producers reported they had so much grass there wasn’t any runoff to refill stock water tanks. Though there was abundant grass, pastures couldn’t be stocked to take full advantage of the plentiful grazing without water for the cattle. Hay was in short supply, but now, after the rains, prospects looked promising for a good crop. The wheat harvest was nearly finished. Yields were below normal. Peaches looked good, with early varieties being harvested.
Click here to see more...