By Frayne Olson
The Russia-Ukraine war has escalated, and key grain export terminals have been damaged in both countries. In addition, commercial shipping is being targeted, disrupting grain flows out of the region. Both Ukraine and Russia are major producers and exporters of wheat, barley, corn and sunflower. Restricted grain flows from the region are impacting global wheat prices and shifting wheat supply chains.
Figure 1 shows historical and projected wheat exports for the top seven exporting countries, based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The forecasted 2026/2027 export levels, represented by the dashed line segments, were prepared before the damage to export infrastructure was realized. Notice the significant increase in Russian wheat exports in the past five years.
Figure 2 is a map showing the wheat-producing area surrounding the Black Sea. The Ukrainian port of Odessa and the Russian ports of Novorossiysk and Rostov on Don have sustained recent damage due to the expanding war. Industry estimates suggest that Russia exported 46.3 million metric tons of grain from ports in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, accounting for about 90% of Russia’s total sea-based exports.
Source : ndsu.edu