U.S. Dairy Exports Eke Out Another Volume Increase In February

But export value dropped and bearish demand signals show up in the data.

After a surprisingly strong January, U.S. dairy exports came back down to earth in February. On a milk solids basis, U.S. dairy export volume gained just 0.8% (+1,430 MT MSE), but that increase was driven almost entirely by lactose, which surged (+32%, +9,322 MT), along with some help from WPC80+ (+9%, +472 MT) and MPC (+34%, +965 MT).  

On the other side of the ledger, low-protein whey products exported under HS code 0404.10 declined by 9% (-3,837 MT), as did fat-heavy products like butter (-32%, -1,615 MT), anhydrous milkfat (-82%, -1,377 MT) and whole milk powder (-41%, -1,332 MT) – finally reflecting the reality that U.S. butter prices ran well above the world market for much of 2022.  

Running in between the two extremes, NFDM/SMP and cheese were virtually flat (-1%, -342 MT for NFDM/SMP and -0%, -82 MT for cheese). However, the steady nature of the topline numbers for both products belies the significant variation by market, as Latin America demand proved particularly reliable in contrast to the challenges faced in Asia.