US Soybean Outlook Tightens Slightly

Jan 13, 2023

The 2022-23 US soybean outlook has tightened modestly as a lower average yield and smaller harvested area blunted a slimmed-down export forecast.

In its January supply-demand update Thursday, the USDA pegged soybean ending stocks for the current marketing year at 210 million bu, down 10 million from December and well below 274 million and 257 million the previous two years. Going into the report, most traders and analysts were expecting an increase – rather than a decrease - in the ending stocks estimate, up to around 236 million bu. With the surprise, soybean futures were trading around 30 cents higher near the noon hour.

On the supply side, the USDA maintained its 2022 US soybean planted area estimate unchanged from last month at 87.5 million acres. However, harvested area was lowered 300,000 acres to 86.3 million. Along with the smaller harvested area, the USDA also downgraded its national yield estimate for last year’s crop, trimming it by more than half a bushel to 49.5 bu/acre, versus 51.7 bu in 2021.

With harvested area and the average yield both falling from last month, nationwide soybean production for 2022 is now estimated at 4.276 billion bu, a fall of 69 million from December and below the previous year’s crop of 4.465 billion.

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Video: Agriculture Secretary Rollins Speaks at American Farm Bureau Federation Convention in Anaheim

One of the highlights at the 2026 American Farm Bureau Federation Convention in Anaheim, California, was an address by U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins. During her remarks, she thanked America’s farmers and ranchers and said the Trump Administration is fully aware that food security is national security.

She also acknowledged the challenging times in Farm Country with low commodity prices and high input costs and said that’s why the President stepped in to help with the recent Bridge Assistance Program.

Montana Farm Bureau Federation Executive Vice President Scott Kulbeck says that Farm Bureau members are appreciative of the help and looks forward to working with the American Farm Bureau Federation and its presence in Washington, DC to keep farmers and ranchers in business.

Secretary Rollins said the Trump Administration is also committed to helping ranchers build back America’s cattle herd while also providing more high-quality U.S. beef at the meat case for consumers.

And she also announced more assistance for specialty crop producers who only received a fraction of the $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA).

It’s important to note that producers who qualify for Farmer Bridge Assistance can expect the Farm Service Agency to start issuing payments in late February. For more information, farmers and ranchers are encouraged to contact their local USDA Service Center.