By Todd Hultman
As corn and soybean harvests head to the final laps of fall, analysts do not expect much change in USDA's row-crop estimates, but export demand estimates may see further reductions, related to restricted barge traffic along the Mississippi River. USDA's next World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and Crop Production reports are due out Wednesday, at 11 a.m. CST with DTN coverage shortly after 11 a.m. and a report webinar at 12:30 p.m.
CORN
One month ago, USDA lowered its estimate of the 2022 U.S. corn crop to 13.895 billion bushels (bb), based on a lower yield of 171.9 bushels per acre (bpa), due mainly to drought in the outer periphery of the Corn Belt. Dow Jones' survey of 20 analysts anticipates a repeat in November, looking for a 13.893 bb crop on the same yield of 171.9 bpa.
USDA's estimate of U.S. ending corn stocks in 2022-23, however, is expected to increase 40 million bushels (mb), from 1.172 bb to 1.212 bb, likely related to corn's slow early pace of export sales and to barge traffic problems brought on by low water levels on the Mississippi River that are not expected to improve significantly anytime soon. If true, U.S. ending corn stocks will still be the lowest in 10 years.
SOYBEANS
Similar to corn, Dow Jones' survey of analysts does not expect much change in USDA's soybean crop estimate, going from 4.313 bb in October to 4.324 in November with a yield of 49.9 bpa. USDA estimated soybeans were 88% harvested at the end of October, so there does not seem much room for surprise on the production side of the ledger.
Dow Jones' survey expects USDA to increase its estimate of U.S. ending soybean stocks in 2022-23 from 200 mb to 215 mb, not leaving much room for any changes on the demand side of the ledger either. If true, ending U.S. soybeans stocks will still be the lowest in seven years.
Unlike corn, the demand side of the soybean ledger has been active in early 2022-23 with the most profitable crush incentives on record giving soybean processors plenty of reason to keep buying soybeans. Soybean export sales are near last year's pace, and shipments are only down 7% from a year ago, as commercials are finding ways to keep beans moving, despite problems on the river.
WHEAT
Wheat will have no new production estimates in Wednesday's report from USDA. Dow Jones' survey does expect a tiny increase in USDA's estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks, from 576 mb in October to 577 mb in November, still the lowest U.S. ending wheat stocks in 15 years.
So far in 2022-23, U.S. wheat export commitments are nothing to brag about at 447 mb, down 6% from a year ago. USDA has set such a low bar for this season's exports it will be difficult for even wheat to disappoint.
Click here to see more...