By Ryan Hanrahan
Farm Futures’ Bruce Blythe reported that “corn futures plunged to the lowest levels since August after USDA stunned the market by boosting its 2025 U.S. crop estimate above 17 billion bushels for the first time, signaling a heavy supply outlook that likely will burden prices and further squeeze farmer bottom lines even amid record demand. Soybean futures also tumbled after USDA held its yield figure steady.”
“USDA said last year’s U.S. corn crop averaged a record 186.5 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from a previous estimate, according to the agency’s annual Crop Production Annual Summary released (yesterday),” Blythe reported. “The average marked a 4% improvement over 179.3 bpa in 2024 and clashed with trade expectations for a downward revision of about 2 bpa.”
“USDA also raised harvested acreage 1.3 million acres to 91.3 million acres, resulting in a record crop totaling 17.021 billion bushels, up 269 million bushels from USDA’s previous estimate in November and up over 2 billion bushels, or 14%, from 2024,” Blythe reported. “USDA also raised its forecast for U.S. corn stocks at the end of the 2025-26 marketing year by 198 million bushels to 2.227 billion bushels, a seven-year high.”
“Today’s numbers ‘blindsided’ the market, painting a troubling picture for U.S. farmers struggling with crop prices that remain stubbornly below break-even levels and no apparent end in sight, said Jon Prischmann, President of Blue Creek Commodities and Hedging LLC in Fergus Falls, Minnesota,” Blythe reported. “‘Very surprising numbers today… and very ugly for corn,’ Prischmann said in an email. ‘Rallies will most likely now be quickly sold all the way into springtime unless something changes in the outside/world markets,’ he said. Heavy supplies and slumping prices ‘will make hedging going into summer very difficult for the rest of old crop and also new-crop December 2026.'”
Source : illinois.edu