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WASDE: U.S. Feed Grain Supply Projections Remain Unchanged

Dec 10, 2014

U.S. feed grain supply and use projections for 2014/15 are mostly unchanged as a small increase in projected corn food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use reduces ending stocks slightly.  Expected corn use for sweeteners is raised 10 million bushels dropping projected corn ending stocks just below 2.0 billion bushels.  Supply and use projections for the other feed grains are unchanged.  The projected range for the season-average corn farm price is unchanged at $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel.  The sorghum farm price range is raised 5 cents on each end to $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel, equal to corn, as strong demand from China supports sorghum prices.   
Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 1.1 million tons higher.  Higher corn production for China and EU, higher rye production for Russia, and higher oats production for Canada, more than offset lower expected corn and barley output for Argentina.  Upward production revisions largely reflect the latest official government estimates and harvest results. Corn production for Argentina is lowered 1.0 million tons reflecting lower expected plantings, but the reduction in area is partly offset by higher expected yields with abundant early season soil moisture in key growing areas.  
Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is raised 2.5 million tons mostly on higher expected barley and mixed grain feeding for EU and higher sorghum feeding for China.  Corn feeding is also raised for EU driving the increase in projected foreign corn consumption.  EU livestock and poultry feeders are expected to shift rations toward coarse grains as abundant supplies and stronger wheat exports make coarse grain feeding more competitive.    
Global coarse grain trade for 2014/15 is mostly unchanged.  China corn imports are lowered, but China sorghum imports are raised.  Mostly offsetting the increase for China sorghum is a reduction for Japan sorghum imports.  Barley imports are raised for Saudi Arabia.  Barley exports are lowered for Argentina, but partly offset by an increase for EU.  World corn exports are lowered slightly with a reduction for Argentina only partly offset by an increase for Vietnam. Global ending stocks are projected 0.7 million tons higher mostly reflecting the larger China corn crop.  Small reductions in U.S. and EU corn stocks partly offset the increase for China.

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