Wheat Market Outlook and Prices

Wheat supplies in many of the world’s top wheat exporting countries are depleting. This is heightening the importance of Black Sea wheat, and its ability to reach the market.

Last week, Russian drones attacked Ismail, one of Ukraine’s ports along the Danube River. Ukrainian drones also attacked a Russian naval port in Novorossiysk, temporarily halting export loading at the port nearby.

While Ukraine’s Danube ports have since resumed near-normal operations, Ukraine’s ability to use the Danube River has become important. With the closure of the Black Sea trade deal, the Danube is now a main export route to move Ukraine’s grain. Ukraine can ship ~2-2.5 million mt of grain per month through the Danube and another ~2 million mt by rail. The combination of these would allow the country to export all the ~40 million mt of grain exports that are expected from Ukraine this year. The inability to use the Danube River would cut Ukraine’s export capacity by almost half. Russia’s continued attacks on Ukraine’s grain infrastructure appears to be a deliberate attempt to prevent the country from exporting grain.