Wheat Market Outlook - June 1, 2026

Market Outlook - Wheat

• Wheat markets faded over the past week, but we are just getting into the spring wheat growing season in North America. We will have the first USDA Crop Progress report for the U.S. spring wheat, corn, soybeans, barley and corn crop this year which will be released today (Monday), after the market close. The market will use today's figures as a benchmark for the ongoing weeks. The initial reports provide the markets with a bit of fundamental news to chew on for the remainder of the week and generally set the tone for the first part of the week’s trade. The market will trade North American weather markets heavily here in the coming weeks. Producers should look at positioning both old crop and new crop sales on any spike in the market here as the time horizon to clean up old crop wheat in the next two months prior to the new crop harvest coming online. Producers looking for cashflow off the combine will want to be sure they have proper positioning for the harvest window. The market right now is satisfied with how the Canadian crop is looking in general. There are some problem areas and some delayed areas, but in markets, they look at total tonnage available to them from a region, and a good majority of the Canadian Prairies will be sitting fine for moisture. This changes week by week but for now, a good portion of central Alberta and central Manitoba is forecasted for rains in the next five days, we will see what falls vs forecasted. 

Market Outlook - Durum

• Minimal change from last weeks’ durum outlook. Canadian durum export expectations dropped to 5.15 million tonnes compared to 5.5 million tonnes last year and 5.6 million tonnes the year prior by the IGC in their monthly report this past week, as stronger North African production is expected to reduce import demand into key Canadian export markets later this season. Price outlooks will be dependent upon the Canadian crop. Some dryness concerns in south central Saskatchewan and limited rainfall during the next ten days will be one to watch for the crop. The region has been in a dry bias and no real precipitation in the forecast. Many private estimates have the Canadian crop  down about 1MMT year-over-year on less acres and yield. The crop is on the tail end of planting and would largely be considered planted. North America will be the key card to the durum market. A large Western Canadian crop will keep markets muted into early fall. Markets anticipated to be flat for both old crop and new crop and will remain so unless any market news develops from the North American crop.