Wheat Market Outlook – September 29, 2025

Western Canadian Markets Highlights / Key Events
WHEAT FUTURES

Minneapolis Spring Wheat

• Futures sit at $5.68 per bushel on the U.S. based contract. New contract lows were made last week at $5.62 per bushel on Sept. 23, 2025.

Kansas City Wheat

• Kansas City wheat was at $5.05 per bushel this morning. KC wheat sits above its contract low of $4.97 per bushel set on Sept. 22, 2025.

Chicago Wheat

• Chicago wheat sits at $5.19 per bushel. There is a new contract low of $5.07 set on Sept. 23, 2025.

European Wheat

• MATIF wheat futures at $188.75 euro per tonne. New contract low set at $187.75 euro per tonne on Sept. 23, 2025.

Global Wheat Market Notable Items
Global

• Wheat values dropped slightly week-over-week in most locations except for Russia and Australia. Argentina adding more supply to the global market through reduced export tariffs kept any appreciation out of the market.
• Major sales this week include a 600,000-tonne purchase of Black Sea wheat by Algeria, sparking some demand from the region and keeping prices intact.
• Global crop size is set to increase 2 per cent year-over-year but on the flip side, consumption is set to rise 2 per cent as well to help offset some of the extra tonnage being harvested in the northern hemisphere and anticipation of larger southern hemisphere crops.
• Imports are expected to increase for the year as Asian and African nations are expected to import more wheat year-over-year. European import demand is expected to damper some of the gains seen in Asia and African regions. Turkey is expected to take around 9 mmt of wheat this year, up from last year’s 4.8 mmt. The 9 mmt is closer to recent historical import volumes although as they took 10 mmt and 13.9 mmt in the two years preceding last year. According to the International Grains Council (IGC), Indonesia is expected to take 11.8 mmt vs 10.7 mmt last year, China, Korea, Philippines are all in for more coverage this year as Pacific Asian nations are expected to snag an extra 3.8 mmt this year vs last.