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Wheat Sales Rebound From Marketing Year Low

U.S. wheat sales increased to their highest point in six weeks, rebounding from last week’s marketing year low. Corn sales also increased to their highest level in seven weeks, although soybeans sales declined this past week. Wheat exports increased for the third consecutive week, reaching their highest level since October 2014. Corn exports also increased, but soybeans decreased to their second lowest level this marketing year.

Avian bird flu has arrived in full force in the U.S. infecting millions of birds. Iowa reported 5.3 million hens were “destroyed” after it was confirmed the flock was infected, reported the Associated Press earlier this week. The Center for Disease Control is currently working on a creating a vaccine.

Weekly net corn sales were 867,900 metric tons (MT), a 48% increase from last week and a 34% increase from the prior 10-week average. Increases were reported from Japan, Mexico, Colombia, and Saudi Arabia. Decreases were reported from unknown destinations, Guatemala, the Dominican Republic, and Honduras. Exports were 1,041,100 MT, a 20% increase from last week and a 13% increase from the prior 10-week average. The primary destinations were Japan, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea.

Weekly net soybean sales were 102,100 MT, a 67% decrease from last week and a 57% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Increases were reported from China, Mexico, Japan, and Morocco. Decreases were reported from Vietnam, unknown destinations, Israel, and Thailand. Exports were 155,900 MT, a 72% decrease from last week and an 82% decrease from the prior 10-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, China, Indonesia, and Taiwan.

Weekly net wheat sales were 397,500 MT, a 730% increase from last week and a 35% increase from the prior 10-week average. Increases were reported from South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Mexico. Decreases were reported from Ecuador and Tunisia. Exports were 557,300 MT, a 45% increase from last week and a 31% increase from the prior 10-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, Thailand, the Philippines, and South Korea.

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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.