USDA expects 2026 hog slaughter to be slightly lower than last year. Because of heavier slaughter weights pork production is expected to be up a slim 0.2% over 2025. Given that situation, one would expect 2026 hog prices to be close to year-ago levels, if not higher. However, hog prices have fallen a great deal in recent weeks and 2026 hog prices are forecast to average 7% lower than in 2025. The problem is weak demand for hogs. We are coming up on the time of year when hog slaughter is the highest. There are three major holidays in six weeks. Packer margins are tight. Given this combination packers are unlikely to spend much money chasing hogs.
Hog prices in 2025 averaged $68.80/cwt (liveweight) the highest year since 2022. USDA has forecast average liveweight hog prices at $63.79/cwt for 2026 and $63/cwt for 2027. They averaged $63.41/cwt in 2024.
Hog futures currently indicate carcass prices will bottom around $65/cwt (carcass weight) this winter and to barely make it to $90/cwt by next summer. The December 2026 lean hog futures contract is trading $6/cwt lower than the December 2027 contract.
The average liveweight market hog price in September was $63.31/cwt, the lowest since January; down $6.12 from the month before; down $12.03 from a year earlier and the lowest monthly average price since January.
Heavier slaughter weights are the reason pork production is up when head slaughtered is down. Slaughter weights have been up nearly every week this year. More production leads to more consumption. U.S. per capita pork consumption is predicted to be 49.2 pounds in 2026, down 0.1 pound from last year and 0.3 pounds less than the prediction for 2027.
Click here to see more...