Canola crushing continues to outperform
For the 2024-25 crop year, Canadian canola production is estimated at 17.8 million tonnes (Mt), reflecting a 7% decrease from last year. Despite similar seeded and harvested areas to 2023-24, hot and dry conditions during key growth stages negatively impacted yields. Imports are forecasted at 150,000 tonnes (Kt), contributing to a total supply of 20.7 Mt, a 3% decrease compared to the previous year.
Canola crushing continues to outperform, running 6% ahead of last year's pace. By March 31, 2025, Canada is expected to crush 7.8 Mt of seed, producing 3.3 Mt of canola oil and 4.6 Mt of canola meal. Domestic crush is forecast to reach a record 11.5 Mt, driven by expanded processing capacity and strong demand for canola oil and meal.
Exports have also increased, with 7.69 Mt of canola shipped so far, leading to an upward revision of the export forecast to 8.5 Mt. However, feed, waste, and dockage are expected to be negative, pushing carry-out stocks to a twelve-year low of 1.3 Mt if realized.
The average price for No.1 Track Vancouver is projected to rise by $20/tonne to $675/tonne, though it is 6% lower than the previous year, reflecting the overall decrease in global oilseed prices and ample soybean supplies.
Looking ahead to 2025-26, the intended seeded area for canola is forecast at 8.8 million hectares (Mha), slightly lower than last year and marginally below the five-year average. Production is projected at 18.0 Mt, a slight increase, but still 6% lower than the previous year due to reduced carry-in stocks.
Canola crushing is expected to decline slightly to 11.0 Mt, with tighter supplies and uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and renewable energy mandates. Exports are forecast to fall to a four-year low, with carry-out stocks rising to 2.0 Mt.
The price for 2025-26 is projected to increase slightly to $700/tonne for No.1 Track Vancouver.
This report provides an update to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) April outlook for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 crop years, which run from August 1 to July 31 for oats. AAFC notes that the projections are based on market conditions and trade policies in effect as of May 13, 2025.
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