The problem is United States remains the dominant export market at 99% of the exported rye
The 2024-2025 Canadian rye outlook presents several key developments for the market. Canadian rye supply is estimated at 513 thousand tonnes (Kt), marking a 10% increase from the previous crop year. This rise is largely due to increased production, which has more than offset lower carry-in stocks. Overall, supply for 2024-2025 is projected to be 5% above the five-year average.
However, exports are expected to decline sharply to 156 Kt, which is well below the five-year average. The United States remains the dominant export market, accounting for nearly 99% of the exported rye, with smaller volumes sent to South Korea and Japan.
Total domestic demand is anticipated to increase, primarily driven by higher feed use. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise significantly, reaching 110 Kt, a notable increase from last year and the five-year average.
According to Statistics Canada (STC), rye inventory as of March 31 stood at 246 Kt, reflecting a sharp increase from the previous year and the five-year average. This surge is primarily linked to weak exports and stronger domestic feed use during the August 2024 – March 2025 period.
The average price for rye in Canada is projected to be $190/tonne for 2024-2025, down over $25/tonne compared to the previous year and marking the lowest price in seven years.
Looking ahead to 2025-26, Canadian rye acreage is projected to rise by 56%, reaching 285 thousand hectares, the highest in over three decades. Production is expected to increase sharply to 620 Kt, further driving supplies to 732 Kt. Despite abundant supply, rye prices are forecast to fall to $170/tonne due to pressures from lower row crop prices and abundant supplies.
Globally, the USDA projects world rye production in 2025-26 to rise by 4%, with Canada contributing significantly to the increase. World rye imports and consumption are expected to remain stable, but stocks are projected to decline sharply.
This report provides an update to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) April outlook for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 crop years, which run from August 1 to July 31 for rye. AAFC notes that the projections are based on market conditions and trade policies in effect as of May 13, 2025.
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