U.S. farm optimism rises even as profits fall
U.S. farmers remain cautiously optimistic about the long-term agricultural economy, even as they face lower crop prices and higher input costs. According to Purdue University and CME Group’s latest Ag Economy Barometer released on October 7, 2025, the overall index rose by one point to 126 after three months of decline.
The report showed a shift in sentiment: the Index of Current Conditions fell seven points to 122, while the Index of Future Expectations climbed five points to 128. The survey was conducted shortly after the USDA released its September Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports, which highlighted record corn and soybean yields that continue to pressure market prices.
“High production costs and weak crop prices are pressuring farm incomes on US crop farms,” said Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture, "A large majority of US farmers expect government support to bolster farm incomes if crop prices remain weak.”
Despite current struggles, many farmers believe national policies are moving in the right direction and anticipate possible support programs similar to the 2019 Market Facilitation Program if commodity prices stay low.
Confidence in trade policies, however, is fading. Only 51% of farmers believe tariffs will strengthen the US agricultural economy, down sharply from earlier surveys where nearly 70% held that view. Meanwhile, 30% now think tariffs will weaken the sector, and 19% remain uncertain.
In terms of farmland, the outlook is stabilizing. The Short-Term Farmland Values Expectations Index fell to 106, with most respondents — around 58% — expecting land values to remain steady over the next year.
Overall, farmers appear concerned about immediate challenges but remain hopeful that policy and future markets will support a stronger agricultural economy.
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