Oats, soybeans, and soybean meal moved higher amid concerns over Canadian crop production, Black Sea grain exports, and expectations for upcoming U.S.-China trade discussions.
Grain and oilseed markets showed mixed movement during the week of September 18, 2026, as traders focused on U.S. yield revisions, Black Sea export disruptions, Canadian production estimates, crop conditions in Western Canada, and expectations surrounding the upcoming U.S.-China summit. Oats were one of the week's standout markets, moving above $4 per bushel, while soybeans and soybean meal also posted notable gains. The December corn contract finished slightly lower, while wheat prices declined modestly.
During the September 18 edition of the Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast, titled, "Stats Canada Production Forecast Too High + Xi Stroke?", hosted by Abhinesh Gopal, head of commodity research, and chief commodity strategist Moe Agostino, the discussion centered on Statistics Canada's latest crop production estimates and whether the agency's canola forecast accurately reflects conditions across Western Canada.
Statistics Canada reported lower all-wheat production compared with the previous year, while its canola estimate came in above trade expectations. The hosts questioned whether the estimate fully accounts for flooding, unseeded acreage, and difficult harvest conditions.
Weather remained an important factor for Canadian crops, particularly in Western Canada, where precipitation reached 287% of normal from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026.
The podcast also highlighted concerns about wheat quality, including reports of sprouting and other issues. Because Canada is a major global wheat and canola producer and exporter, changes in production could have implications for supplies, exports and prices.
The discussion then turned to U.S. corn and soybean production. Recent USDA estimates reduced Illinois corn yield to 209 bushels per acre while increasing Iowa's estimate to 219 bushels.
For soybeans, Illinois was lowered to 66 bushels per acre, and Iowa was raised to 64 bushels. The hosts noted that field reports have been mixed, with some areas producing below expectations.
International trade was another major focus. Ukrainian corn exports and Russian wheat exports were reported lower during the first 10 days of September, while transportation challenges continued to affect grain movement from the Black Sea region.
The podcast also examined expectations surrounding the upcoming U.S.-China summit, including possible developments involving agricultural purchases and trade negotiations.
Soybean meal remained strong, reaching multi-year highs as export demand and processing supply conditions supported the market.
The episode also covered the latest U.S. cattle-on-feed report, which showed inventories and placements below expectations while marketings were slightly higher. Finally, managed money positions across grains and oilseeds remained elevated, with additional buying reported in corn and soybean meal.
Watch the Stats Canada Production Forecast Too High + Xi Stroke? podcast below.
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