High hog prices steady feed costs and balanced markets support producers
After a surprisingly strong 2025, the Canadian hog sector is starting 2026 on a positive note says FCC. Hog's futures are near five-year highs, and global markets are more balanced after several years of oversupply and weaker demand. Combined with lower feed costs, this is creating supportive margins for producers across Canada.
Hog prices in 2026 are forecast to remain slightly higher than last year and well above their five-year averages states FCC. Strong cattle markets are helping support hog demand, as consumers turn to pork as a more affordable protein option. Domestic hog slaughter increased in 2025 after years of consolidation and is expected to rise slightly again this year, adding to market stability.
Feed costs are another major positive factor. Record Canadian crop production has pushed grain and oilseed prices lower. Wheat, barley, and corn prices are expected to remain steady or decline slightly, while oilseed meals are projected to fall due to high global stocks. Additional peas entering feed channels are also helping reduce ration costs. As a result, feed prices are expected to stay below the five-year average through 2026, supporting strong farrow-to-finish margins in Manitoba and Ontario.
Disease remains a key risk for producers worldwide. African swine fever, porcine epidemic diarrhea, and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome continue to affect major pork-producing regions. If Canada can maintain strong biosecurity and keep these diseases under control, producers can remain optimistic.
On the consumer side, pork prices have increased more slowly than beef and chicken in recent years explains FCC. This has made pork a more affordable option at grocery stores, contributing to rising domestic consumption in 2025. Continued price competitiveness could support further growth in demand.
Exports remain critical, with more than 60 percent of Canadian pork shipped overseas. While exports were slightly below the five-year average in 2025 due to reduced shipments to China, strong growth in markets such as Japan, Mexico, and South Korea has helped offset losses. Trade with the United States remains stable, though future policy discussions will need close attention.
Overall, strong prices, manageable costs, and improving demand suggest Canadian hog producers are well positioned for solid profitability in 2026.
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