Excessive Delta Rainfall Lowers 2025 Crop Expectations for Cotton and Rice
The USDA's June WASDE report revealed surprising reductions in U.S. rice and cotton crop forecasts, driven mainly by excessive spring rains in the Delta. Meanwhile, corn and soybean projections remained mostly stable.
Corn beginning stocks for 2025/26 were lowered by 50 million bushels because of higher 2024/25 exports. No other demand changes were made, and the season-average farm price stayed at $4.20 per bushel.
Soybeans also saw no adjustments, with ending stocks holding at 295 million bushels and an average price of $10.25 per bushel.
A major surprise in the report was a 4.5% reduction in long-grain rice production, now forecast at 159.7 million cwt. USDA cited spring flooding in the Delta as a major factor.
Imports rose by 1 million cwt and domestic use dropped by 3 million cwt, reducing ending stocks to 34 million cwt. The average price rose to $12.50 per cwt or $5.63 per bushel.
Cotton production was also affected. USDA reduced harvested acreage by 2% and national yield by 1%, forecasting total output at 14.0 million bales—down from 14.4 million in 2024/25.
Beginning stocks fell by 400,000 bales due to increased 2024/25 exports, lowering ending stocks to 4.3 million bales. The average cotton price remains unchanged at 62 cents per pound.
“As a reminder, USDA will release its Acreage report on June 30. It will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. The acreage findings of the survey will be used in the July 11th WASDE.”