Production shifts trade volatility and herd health challenges shape 2026 outlook
According to a recent report from RaboResearch, the global pork industry is expected to experience uneven production growth in 2026, while international trade flows continue to shift. Several factors are influencing global supply, including disease pressure, biosecurity concerns, high construction costs, and changing trade restrictions. As a result, producers are focusing on productivity improvements, cost control, and cautious expansion.
Global pork production is expected to increase during the first half of 2026. Growth will be supported by modest production gains in major producing regions such as the United States, the European Union, and China, along with steady growth in Brazil. Productivity improvements are expected to play a greater role than herd expansion in most regions. In China, however, a relatively large herd size will remain an important driver of production growth.
“The driving forces for growth vary by region,” said Chenjun Pan, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein for RaboResearch. “Productivity improvements weigh more than previously in the US, China, the EU and Brazil, while the large herd size is another main cause of output growth for China. Production in 2H 2026 is expected to slow down and even decline, largely driven by the herd reduction in China and Spain. In China, producers scale back to rebalance, while Spain faces ASF-related trade constraints that lead to herd cuts.”
In the second half of 2026, global pork production is projected to slow and may even decline. This slowdown will largely be driven by herd reductions in China and Spain. Chinese producers are expected to reduce herd sizes to rebalance supply, while Spain is likely to cut herds due to trade challenges linked to African swine fever restrictions.
Global pork trade is expected to remain volatile throughout 2026. While Brazil recorded strong export growth in 2025, exports from other major suppliers declined. Import policies are changing in key markets such as China and Mexico. These shifts, combined with ongoing disease-related bans on certain pork products, are expected to continue reshaping global trade flows.
Herd health remains a major challenge for the pork industry. African swine fever continues to affect parts of Southeast Asia, slowing local production recovery. Meanwhile, PRRS continues to impact production in North America. These health risks reinforce the need for strong biosecurity and careful management across the global pork sector.
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