Dry weather rising costs and shifting prices challenge Texas row crop farmers
Texas row crop producers are preparing for the 2026 planting season under uncertain conditions caused by weather concerns changing commodity prices and continued pressure from high production costs. According to economists with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service, these challenges could significantly affect planting decisions and farm income.
Weather remains a key concern as much of Texas has experienced warm and dry conditions since last fall due to La Niña. While this weather pattern is expected to weaken by March, dry soil conditions may continue into important planting windows. This is especially important for cotton, which is planted across different timeframes depending on location.
John Robinson explained that the current situation is very different from last year, when timely rainfall supported strong cotton yields. The drier start to 2026 raises the risk of lower production and increased price volatility during the spring and early summer months.
Cotton markets also remain sensitive to global demand because a large share of U.S. cotton is exported. Even when weather concerns trigger short-term price increases, these rallies often fade by harvest. This makes marketing decisions more difficult and increases financial risk for growers.
At the same time, production costs continue to rise. Expenses for seed fertilizer fuel and other inputs are increasing faster than market prices, placing pressure on farm margins. Many Texas row crop producers are finding it harder to cover costs despite careful management.
Overall, Texas cotton farmers are entering the season cautiously. Weather uncertainty unstable markets and high input costs are forcing producers to manage risk carefully as they plan for the 2026 crop year.
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