Soybean market prospects - A glimpse of hope in 2024

Sep 02, 2024
By Farms.com

Record harvest and economic factors may boost soy exports

The 2024/25 U.S. soybean marketing year begins under the shadow of decreasing global demand, influenced by a robust U.S. dollar and slow economic growth worldwide.

The situation is further complicated by uncertain trade policies. However, the future might hold opportunities for growth in U.S. soybean exports.

Recent analysis by CoBank suggests that early season sales figures may not be indicative of the year's total, with a record harvest anticipated to drive prices down and attract new buyers.

The primary factors that could rejuvenate U.S. soybean exports include an unexpected reduction in South American soybean production due to La Niña effects and the implementation of strict EU regulations on deforestation that could disadvantage South American producers.

Potential economic recovery in China, spurred by lower interest rates, might increase their soybean imports. Similarly, changes in U.S. interest rates could affect global economic dynamics, making U.S. soybeans more appealing internationally.

The key shipping period for U.S. soybeans is fast approaching, and despite the current downturn, strategic market conditions and regulatory changes on the horizon could significantly benefit U.S. soybean farmers.

If these potential developments materialize, they may counteract the current trends and lead to a productive export year for U.S. soybeans.

Video: How farmers are protecting the soil and our food security | DW Documentary

For a long time, soil was all but ignored. But for years, the valuable humus layer has been thinning. Farmers in Brandenburg are clearly feeling the effects of this on their sandy fields. Many are now taking steps to prepare their farms for the future.

Years of drought, record rainfall and failed harvests: we are becoming increasingly aware of how sensitively our environment reacts to extreme weather conditions. Farmers' livelihoods are at stake. So is the ability of consumers to afford food.

For a few years now, agriculture that focuses solely on maximum yields has been regarded with increasing skepticism. It is becoming more and more clear just how dependent we are on healthy soils.

Brandenburg is the federal state with the worst soil quality in Germany. The already thin, fertile humus layer has been shrinking for decades. Researchers and farmers who are keen to experiment are combating these developments and looking for solutions. Priority is being given to building up the humus layer, which consists of microorganisms and fungi, as well as springtails, small worms and centipedes.

For Lena and Philipp Adler, two young vegetable farmers, the tiny soil creatures are invaluable helpers. On their three-hectare organic farm, they rely on simple, mechanical weed control, fallow areas where the soil can recover, and diversity. Conventional farmer Mark Dümichen also does everything he can to protect soil life on his land. For years, he has not tilled the soil after the harvest and sows directly into the field. His yields have stabilized since he began to work this way.

Isabella Krause from Regionalwert AG Berlin-Brandenburg is convinced after the experiences of the last hot summers that new crops will thrive on Brandenburg's fields in the long term. She has founded a network of farmers who are promoting the cultivation of chickpeas with support from the scientific community.