USDA forecasts lower profits despite strong government support in 2026
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has forecast that net farm income will decline slightly in 2026, signaling ongoing financial stress across the agricultural sector. Net farm income, a broad measure of farm profitability, is expected to fall to $153.4 billion, down 0.7% from the previous year. When adjusted for inflation, the decline is more significant.
Government payments are expected to play a major role in supporting farm income. USDA estimates that direct government support will account for nearly 29% of total farm income in 2026. Without this assistance, net farm income would drop sharply, highlighting how dependent many producers have become on federal programs.
Crop cash receipts are forecast to rise slightly in nominal terms to $240.8 billion. Corn receipts are projected to increase due to higher production levels, while soybean receipts are expected to remain steady. Wheat receipts, however, are forecast to decline because of lower sales volumes. Despite these gains, inflation reduces the real value of crop earnings.
Livestock and animal product receipts are projected to decline by nearly 6% compared to 2025. Lower prices for milk and eggs are expected to be the main drivers of this decrease, even as cattle prices remain relatively strong.
USDA forecasts farm production expenses to rise modestly to $477.7 billion in nominal terms. However, after adjusting for inflation, expenses are expected to decline slightly, offering limited relief to producers facing tight margins.
Farm households are increasingly relying on off-farm income. While total household income is projected to increase, the median farm income remains negative. Recent revisions to 2025 data also show weaker conditions than previously expected, reinforcing concerns that the farm economy is facing a prolonged downturn rather than a short-term slowdown.
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