Lower crop profits push major planting changes nationwide
Low commodity prices and high production costs are forcing U.S. farmers to carefully evaluate their planting decisions for 2026. As spring approaches, many growers are expected to shift acreage toward soybeans, which currently offer stronger return potential compared to other major crops.
According to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, soybean acreage is projected to rise nearly 6% to about 86 million acres. Improved soybean prices are being supported by expanded U.S. soybean crushing capacity and expectations of continued Chinese demand. Renewable fuel policy expectations are also strengthening soybean market outlooks.
“Following recent price rallies, soybeans offer greater profit potential than corn, wheat, sorghum, cotton and rice. Beyond price signals, crop rotation needs will also play a role. Following a big year for corn in 2025 in which acres climbed to the highest level in decades, more corn acres will be available to rotate to soybeans,” said Tanner Ehmke, lead grains and oilseeds economist with CoBank.
“And with record supplies of corn in storage, farmers will look to rotate into other crops to diversify their marketing risk. Soybeans currently offer the best marketing opportunities,” said Tanner Ehmke.
Corn acreage is projected to decline 4.8% to 94 million acres. After reaching very high planting levels in 2025, many farmers are expected to rotate away from corn. Large corn stocks in storage are also discouraging additional corn planting in key regions such as the Midwest. However, in the Northern Plains and some western states, corn may gain acreage due to weaker soybean basis levels and steady local demand.
Spring wheat acreage is expected to decline slightly, while durum wheat acres could fall 3% due to ample supplies in North America. Grain sorghum acreage is projected to drop 5% as strong corn prices and improved soil moisture encourage farmers in the Central Plains to favor corn instead. However, sorghum acres could recover if exports to China strengthen.
Cotton acreage is forecast to fall to the lowest level in more than a decade, pressured by weak export demand and competition from other countries. Rice acreage is expected to decline sharply, reaching a 30-year low. High production costs and global competition, particularly from India and South America, are weighing heavily on U.S. rice farmers.
Overall, crop rotation needs, global demand patterns, trade conditions, and profitability signals are shaping planting decisions for 2026.
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