Farmer sentiment improved in February as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (AEB) Index rose from 113 points in January to 116 (see Figure 1). The Current Conditions Index increased by 11 points, while the Future Expectations Index dropped 1 point (see Figure 2). The Future Expectations Index this month was 45 points lower than last year’s February index, reaching its lowest level since September 2024. Although concerns about agricultural exports moderated somewhat from the previous month, they are still higher than those expressed in December. In addition, the percentage of respondents who think the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” declined for the second month in a row. The February barometer survey took place from February 2-6, 2026.
Approximately 44% of respondents indicated that their farm operations were worse off in February than they were a year earlier. Looking ahead 12 months, 29% expected worse financial performance, compared with 18% who expected better financial performance. The Farm Capital Investment Index rose 3 points to 50 (see Figure 3). However, only 7% of survey respondents indicated that they plan to increase farm machinery purchases in the upcoming year.
Since 2016, the February barometer survey has included questions about farmers’ growth plans. Of the 51% who plan to expand their farms in the next 5 years, 14% plan to increase their farm size by 10% or more. If these plans materialize, this group will double in size in 5 years or less. This month’s survey also asked respondents whether they plan to bring in another family member into the business in the next 5 years. Results indicated that 36% plan on bringing in another family member into the business within the next 5 years.
Farmers’ perspective on U.S. agricultural exports was less pessimistic in February than in January but more pessimistic than in December 2025. Responding to a broad question about the future of agricultural exports, 14% of respondents in February expected exports to decline over the next five years, down from 16% in January and up from 5% in December (see Figure 5).
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