Black Sea export risks, strong fund buying and heat concerns push grain prices higher.
Grain markets finished the week of August 28, 2026, on a strong note as wheat futures led a broad rally across agricultural commodities. Traders monitored escalating risks around Black Sea exports, potential changes to U.S. crop estimates, weather concerns across the Midwest, and increased speculative buying in corn, soybeans and wheat.
During the August 28 Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast, titled, "Soaring Wheat Futures a Repeat of 2022?", hosted by Abhinesh Gopal, head of commodity research, and chief commodity strategist Moe Agostino, the discussion focused heavily on the sharp move higher in wheat futures and whether current market conditions could resemble the major rally seen in 2022.
Wheat prices reached their highest levels since 2023 across several markets as disruptions involving Russia and Ukraine raised concerns about global supplies.
Hundreds of vessels were reportedly affected by heightened war risks and rising insurance costs in the Black Sea region, while Ukrainian export volumes declined sharply. Russian wheat exports for August were also described as being at their lowest level in more than a decade.
Agostino and Gopal highlighted strengthening momentum in corn and soybeans. Both markets reached new contract highs during the week, while cotton also moved above 90 cents. Strong fund buying has become an important factor behind the recent rally. Net speculative positions increased significantly in corn and soybeans, while wheat also attracted additional buying.
Weather remains another key market driver. Although portions of the Midwest are expected to benefit from drying conditions, forecasts for soaring heat once again reaching 90 to 100 degrees Fahrenheit could create additional stress in areas where crops have already experienced damage.
Agostino and Gopal reminded podcast viewers that excessive heat late in the growing season could accelerate crop maturity and limit yield potential.
The podcast also examined potential changes to USDA agricultural data collection under new leadership at the government body. Modernizing the system and improving the use of digital farm data could provide more timely and accurate information for future crop reports.
Meanwhile, Ontario continues to show strong production potential. The 2026 Great Ontario Yield Tour projected record yields of approximately 206 bushels per acre for corn and 55 bushels per acre for soybeans.
Overall, the analysts expect grain prices to remain supported as price momentum, weather uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and increased fund participation continue to shape the market.
Watch the Soaring Wheat Futures a Repeat of 2022? podcast below.
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