From US Wheat Newsletter
High-Protein Potential in Doubt While SRW, SW Crops Look Good
Wheat Letter this week asked several U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) member state wheat commissions to report on crop and pre-planting conditions. Here are the results:
Eastern Soft Red Winter
Even though Ohio has had little snow cover and single digit temperatures recently, most of the SRW wheat crop in the state is in good shape. In northwest and north central Ohio, most of the wheat was in good condition before winter began and there have been minimal periods of standing water and ice. In western Ohio, there have been some reports of leaf “burn” from cold winds.
The Virginia SRW crop grew and tillered well during the winter and some varieties are close to stem elongation, the growth stage right before the seed head begins to form. Soil moisture levels are above average for most of the growing region and reports evaluate crop condition as 30 percent excellent, 40 percent good and 30 percent fair. Barring an unexpected freeze at or near heading, Virginia is looking at a sizeable crop for 2013.
Winter wheat planted acres in Maryland for 2013 is forecast at 330,000 acres, up 20,000 acres from 2012. Conditions in Maryland, as they are in most SRW-producing states currently are conducive to a very good harvest this year.
Desert Southwest
Conditions for the irrigated Desert Durum® crop in Arizona are predictably good each year and this season presents no exception. The only question is whether record warmth will advance the growth process ahead of normal. However, compared to 2012/13, planted area in the state is likely down from about 100,000 acres to as low as 60,000 acres, a decline of 25 percent to 35 percent.
California wheat growers are expecting a good to average year in terms of planted acres and quality. The biggest challenge at the moment is lack of rain. Dryland growers – representing about 20 percent of the crop – are hoping for more rain soon, although for some it is already too late. For traditionally irrigated wheat, a lack of rain in January and February is challenging since water is not always available early in the year. Growers are alert to early signs of stripe rust and will protect the crop as needed. Common wheat planted acres are about the same as last year; durum acres are down substantially.
Southern and Central Plains
Most of the Texas HRW crop, planted on 5.8 million acres (2.4 million ha), looks surprisingly good. However, about half of the crop is rated in poor to very poor condition. Due to successive years of drought, sub-soil moisture is almost non-existent and with warm, dry weather approaching, additional precipitation in March and throughout the rest of the growing season will be essential for the success of the crop. Dryland wheat in the parched Texas Panhandle has fared the worst.
In Oklahoma, wheat planted area is up 2 percent from last year to 5.5 million acres. However, total production is likely to be less than last year because of serious drought conditions. Rain and snowfall in the past few weeks have improved wheat conditions, and the wheat looks promising in the southwest, central and irrigated fields in the Panhandle region. However, USDA still ranks 41 percent of the wheat in the state in very poor to poor condition. Stands are worse in the northwest counties that normally produce more wheat. Historical data show that wheat emerging in December in Oklahoma will yield 50 percent of a normal crop. This season, in the northwest, much of the HRW did not emerge until late January to early February. The picture could improve a bit with ideal conditions the rest of the season.
Recent rain and snow showers have improved the status of the Kansas HRW crop significantly. Wheat in the state’s central corridor, which produces about 60 percent of the crop, has good moisture and appears to be in good shape. In contrast, western Kansas is still suffering drought effects. Much of the wheat there is either very small, or did not emerge last fall and spring rains will be needed to re-establish the crop. The wheat is beginning to come out of dormancy and while there is enough moisture to carry it for three to four weeks, the crop will need much more precipitation to get to harvest.
The drought is starting to take a visible toll on HRW in Nebraska. After planting in the fall, only farmers who had at least spotty emergence have reason for much hope as the winter provided less than 6 inches of snow in the panhandle and southwestern region where most of the state’s wheat is grown. Even along the southern border with Kansas, more snow may not be enough to re-establish the crop there. Abnormally warm temperatures in early March in the west kicked wheat to break dormancy, but rainfall in the coming few weeks will make or break the state’s HRW crop.
In the first crop progress report of 2013, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) rated 19 percent of Colorado HRW as very poor, 32 percent poor, 37 percent fair, 11 percent good and 1 percent excellent. Last year at this time, 3 percent was considered very poor, 11 percent poor, 42 percent fair, 40 percent good and 4 percent excellent. The primary change has been the historic drought. Twenty-nine percent of Colorado topsoil is very short on moisture, compared to 8 percent at this time last year. Fifty-one percent of Colorado subsoil is very short on moisture, compare with 8 percent last year.
In South Dakota, warm and very dry weather lingered deep into the autumn, disrupting the HRW crop’s normal development. Dormancy was delayed and root development was poor. With the drought continuing through the winter, producers throughout the state are very concerned. Of the estimated 60 percent of winter wheat that had emerged in South Dakota, more than half is in rough shape. Recently, HRW conditions were rated 20 percent very poor, 46 percent poor, 31 percent fair, 3 percent good and 0 percent excellent. Some producers in central South Dakota seeded some hard red spring (HRS) in mid-March while much of the north and northeastern region is still snow covered. Local experts said that a delay in HRS seeding could mean fewer acres as producers opt for other crops.
Wyoming remains very dry and storms last week only provided spotty relief from the ongoing drought. Snow amounts ranged from a trace to just 5 inches. Wyoming producers seeded an estimated 145,000 acres of HRW for 2013 and where stands are established with little apparent winter kill, that wheat is just beginning to break dormancy. Unfortunately, the recent storms featured high sustained winds with gusts reaching 70 mph certainly providing additional stress for the Wyoming wheat crop.
Northern Plains
After a dry summer and fall, most of North Dakota has received adequate snowfall this season. However, much of the state is still classified as being in an abnormally dry or drought condition. Spring precipitation will be needed to help replenish subsoil moisture. Conditions the first part of March have remained cold with sporadic snowfall and it appears these conditions may continue for the rest of the month. An early HRS planting season is not expected and will definitely not be as early as last year when many producers were in the field by the end of March or early April. The exception may be the southwest part of the state, where planting may begin a bit earlier.
Winter wheat condition in Montana is somewhat better than last year with the last report showing 38 percent good to excellent compared to 24 percent last year. Wind, freeze and drought damage remain low with 95 percent none to light, compared with 65 percent last year. Freeze and drought damage remains low at 7 percent, compared to 14 percent last year. Protective snow cover this year was also better this year. Spring wheat planting may start within the next two weeks. Some wheat in near billing in south central has just started to come out of dormancy.
Pacific Northwest
Winter moisture has been abundant in northern Idaho and reservoirs in the south should to be sufficient to irrigate crops there. Winter wheat on the dryland farms in eastern Idaho are somewhat challenged but the area accounts for less than 10 percent of the state’s wheat harvest. Soft white (SW) winter wheat in the north now stands at 4 to 5 inches and wintered well. Wheat is beginning to emerge from dormancy on the Nez Perce prairie and farmers are preparing for spring work likely to start within the next 10 days. Field work is underway in southern Idaho’s Magic Valley where winter wheat is out of dormancy and waiting for warm days for growth.
Oregon producers seeded 770,000 acres of winter wheat for the 2013 harvest, down 3 percent from the 2012 harvest. Soil moisture was poor so seeding was delayed into late fall. Moisture came after planting, so while the SW winter wheat is a bit delayed compared to normal, the crop is mostly in good condition. Western Oregon is seeing significant foliar disease pressure and farmers are protecting their crop. While overall the wheat is doing well, more rain will be needed to bring in a plentiful crop this summer.
“So far, so good.” That’s how farmers in Washington assess the winter wheat crop (including SW, club and HRW) as it comes out of dormancy. Although growers planted into dry conditions last fall, subsequent precipitation allowed the crop to go into winter in good shape and moisture is generally adequate. In some areas, however, precipitation through the winter was below average, leading farmers to worry whether subsoil moisture will be adequate to support the large plants. Although spring rains are always welcome, this year precipitation is needed to finish off the winter crop, not to mention establishing and taking the HRS crop to harvest. An average crop is expected at this time.
Click here to see more...