2023 Grains, oilseeds and pulses sector outlook

Jan 27, 2023

FCC Economics helps you make sense of the top economic trends and issues likely to affect your operation in 2023. The major trends to monitor for grain, oilseed and pulse operations include:

Tight global supply/demand balances that may be on the verge of loosening
Record-breaking average fertilizer costs

A large rebound in production from 2021’s drought-impacted harvest best characterizes the Canadian 2022/23 crop marketing year (MY). It was a good year to have more crop to sell, as commodity prices continued to rise, and excessively dry conditions plagued several of Canada’s largest competitors. Farm revenues showed steep gains year-over-year (YoY) , a rise necessary to keep on top of input prices that seemed to know no limits.

Prices for most principal field crops have already come down from the highs reached in 2022 but remain well in excess of their respective 5-year averages (Table 1). Corn and soybeans are each expected to continue rising from 2021/22 levels in the 2022/23 MY, the only prices to do so. All crops except feed barley will see prices rise relative to year-to-date before falling with the 2023 crop. Despite the decline, they’ll remain above the most recent five-year average.

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Video: From Conventional to Regenerative: Will Groeneveld’s Journey Back to the Land

"You realize you've got a pretty finite number of years to do this. If you ever want to try something new, you better do it."

That mindset helped Will Groeneveld take a bold turn on his Alberta grain farm. A lifelong farmer, Will had never heard of regenerative agriculture until 2018, when he attended a seminar by Kevin Elmy that shifted his worldview. What began as curiosity quickly turned into a deep exploration of how biology—not just chemistry—shapes the health of our soils, crops and ecosystems.

In this video, Will candidly reflects on his family’s farming history, how the operation evolved from a traditional mixed farm to grain-only, and how the desire to improve the land pushed him to invite livestock back into the rotation—without owning a single cow.

Today, through creative partnerships and a commitment to the five principles of regenerative agriculture, Will is reintroducing diversity, building soil health and extending living roots in the ground for as much of the year as possible. Whether it’s through intercropping, zero tillage (which he’s practiced since the 1980s) or managing forage for visiting cattle, Will’s approach is a testament to continuous learning and a willingness to challenge old norms.

Will is a participant in the Regenerative Agriculture Lab (RAL), a social innovation process bringing together producers, researchers, retailers and others to co-create a resilient regenerative agriculture system in Alberta. His story highlights both the potential and humility required to farm with nature, not against it.