After an unexpectedly strong 2025, things continue to look positive for the Canadian hog sector starting off 2026. Hog futures prices are near 5-year highs and are well supported. After several years of weaker demand and oversupply globally, the hog market has become more balanced. With lower feed costs relative to a few years ago, margins look to remain well supported for producers.
Disease continues to be a concern for producers all over the world, with many pork producing regions dealing with outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF), porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED), and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS). If Canada can continue to keep PED and PRRS under control, and keep ASF out of the country, producers can feel optimistic given strong hog prices and manageable feed costs. In this outlook we examine what margins are expected to look like for the year ahead and what domestic and international demand looks like for Canadian pork.
Strong hog prices are being supported by cattle markets
For 2026, our forecasts for cash hog prices across the country are slightly above 2025 and well above their 5-year averages (Table 1). With cattle futures near record levels, this provides support for the hog market as a substitute protein. Demand for hogs is being fueled in part by domestic hog slaughter that increased in 2025 after multiple years of consolidation and is expected to be up slightly again this year. While live hog exports look to remain steady to the U.S. this year there is risk on the horizon as the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement (CUSMA) is up for review and voluntary country of origin labelling (VCOOL) came into effect on January 1. For now, these risks are being outweighed by the demand for Canadian hogs.
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