Agriculture Canada is now projecting record corn production this year.
In its latest monthly supply-demand update on Friday, Ag Canada pegged the 2023 national corn crop at 15.3 million tonnes, up approximately 780,000 from its July forecast and 5.2% above the previous year. If accurate, it would be the largest corn output on record, topping the 2021 high of 14.61 million and 9% above the five-year average. The adjustment brings the Ag Canada forecast in line with the USDA’s Aug. 11 world supply-demand report, which raised expected Canadian corn production to an identical 15.3 million tonnes from 15 million in July.
Ag Canada’s entire month-over-month increase in the corn production estimate is due to a higher average yield, now projected at 161.2 bu/acre, versus 153.1 bu in July and 160.4 bu last year, and second only to the 2015 record of 162.6 bu. Corn seeded and harvested area were held steady from last month at 3.82 million and 3.73 million acres, respectively.
Ag Canada attributed the August yield and production bump to “generally good crop conditions” in the three main producing provinces: Ontario, Quebec, and Manitoba. Ontario is by far the largest corn-producer, accounting for nearly 60% of this year’s national seeded area.
However, the crop is not made yet. Large portions of Quebec have been deluged in recent weeks, while Ontario conditions have also turned much wetter following unfavourably dry weather through much of May and June. Real Agriculture agronomist Peter Johnson also said last week the Ontario corn crop is about 10 days behind in terms of normal development. That pushes grain fill and maturity into early to mid-October, something that often puts test weight at risk, especially in the lower heat unit zones.
“Heavy kernels can shift yield by about 10%,” he said. “So, yield potential is high, but it is not in the bin.”
Manitoba conditions have been more variable, with dryness still a problem in some areas.
Source : Syngenta.ca