Staff losses and low survey response raise reliability questions
According to Ryan Hanrahan, University of Illinois' FarmDoc project, new concerns are emerging about the reliability of crop data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
USDA has long been considered the global benchmark for crop production estimates. Farmers, traders, food companies, and financial institutions closely follow their monthly reports to plan marketing, storage, and pricing decisions. However, significant revisions to 2025 corn acreage estimates have raised questions.
In January, the USDA increased its final estimates for planted and harvested corn acres compared to earlier reports released in June. The unexpected adjustment contributed to grain prices falling more than 5% at a time when many farmers were already facing financial pressure.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), the agency responsible for acreage data, has launched an internal review. Officials stated the review will confirm whether procedures worked correctly and explore improvements, likely without increasing farmer surveys.
Staffing reductions may have played a role. Reports indicate that more than 20,000 USDA employees left during a federal workforce reduction effort. NASS reportedly lost about 1/3 of its staff, while the Farm Service Agency also saw significant workforce declines. Some experts believe fewer employees may have slowed down data processing and reporting.
In addition to staffing challenges, declining survey response rates have created further difficulty. Response rates for major agricultural surveys have dropped from over 80% in the 1990s to around 46% in recent years. Lower participation can make it harder to produce highly accurate estimates.
USDA leadership has stated that while some may disagree with the January numbers, the report was not necessarily inaccurate. Officials added that future revisions will be carefully monitored to ensure accountability.
As agricultural markets depend heavily on timely and accurate information, maintaining confidence in USDA data remains critical for farmers, traders, and the broader food supply chain.
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