Agriculture Canada has lowered its old- and new-crop canola ending stocks estimates from last month amid rising demand projections.
In a monthly supply-demand update released Monday, Ag Canada trimmed its 2024-25 canola ending stocks estimate by 50,000 tonnes from June to 1.1 million, a 12-year low. Meanwhile, forecasted 2025-26 stocks were slashed to an identical 1.1 million tonnes from the previous month’s 1.85 million.
Ag Canada’s latest supply-demand estimates reflect Statistics Canada’s June acreage report, which estimated 2025 Canadian canola planted area at 21.457 million acres, down less than 200,000 from the federal agency’s first new-crop acreage report in March and 2.5% below a year earlier.
As part of that report, StatsCan also took the opportunity to retroactively revise its 2024 production estimate higher, up to 19.184 million tonnes from the previous projection of 17.845 million. The 2023 crop was bumped higher as well, to 19.463 million tonnes from 19.192 million.
The larger production estimates allowed Agriculture Canada to remedy the negative 2024-25 feed, waste and dockage numbers it was forced to use in its May and June supply-demand updates due to much stronger-than-expected export and crush demand. The additional supply also allowed Ag Canada to raise its 2024-25 export forecast by 500,000 tonnes from June to 9.5 million - 42% higher than last year and 17% above the five-year average.
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