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Ag Canada Tightens Old- New-Crop Wheat Outlook; Canola Unchanged

Agriculture Canada has tightened its old- and new-crop wheat outlook for the second straight month amid a hot export pace. 

In updated monthly supply-demand estimates released Thursday, Ag Canada pegged 2023-24 wheat (excl durum) ending stocks at 2.35 million tonnes, down from 2.5 million in May and well down from the April projection of 3.1 million. Meanwhile, 2024-25 ending stocks are now forecast at 2.45 million tonnes, versus 3 million last month and 3.65 million in April. 

Durum stocks were also reduced this month, with the 2023-24 estimate dropping 100,000 tonnes from May to 350,000 tonnes, while 2024-25 stocks were lowered 50,000 tonnes to 700,000. 

All of the drop in the 2023-24 wheat (excl durum) ending stocks estimate was due to a 150,000-tonne increase in the export forecast to 20.4 million, partially offset by a small tick higher in expected domestic use.  

In its accompanying commentary, Ag Canada said StatsCan has reported wheat (excl durum) exports through April 2024 at 16.6 million tonnes, 6% more than the same period last year with an uptick in shipments to Italy, Indonesia, the US, Bangladesh, and Cameroon. According to the Canadian Grain Commission, exports through the licensed elevator system from August to the end of May were 18.3 million tonnes, 10% more than in 2022-23 and 23% above average levels. 

With Ag Canada holding its 2024 wheat (excl durum) production forecast unchanged from last month at 28.93 million tonnes, the smaller carryin from the 2023-24 marketing year lowered the total expected 2024-25 supply to 31.41 million from 31.58 million.  

The 2024-25 wheat (exl durum) export forecast was bumped higher as well, up to 20.5 million tonnes from 20.25 million in May. 

“The (2024-25) export forecast was revised up with the expectation of a strong world demand for high quality, high protein wheat for food use,” Ag Canada said. 

Ag Canada left its 2023-24 wheat (excl durum) average price forecast unchanged from last month at $325/tonne, but raised its 2024-25 estimate by $25 to $335. 

The old- and new-crop supply demand estimates for canola were left steady from last month, with 2023-24 ending stocks projected at 2.55 million tonnes, up sharply from 1.5 million a year earlier but near the five-year average. New-crop stocks are pegged little changed from 2023-24 at 2.5 million. 

The average expected canola price for 2023-24 is up $5 from May at $710, with the 2024-25 forecast up $25 at $700 – still far below the 2022-23 average of $857. 

This year’s canola production estimate was steady from last month at 18.1 million tonnes, down from 18.32 million the previous year. 

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