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Agricultural Uprising Is A Warning For Canada

European politics are notoriously intricate, and the recent EU elections have highlighted a growing fatigue in the West towards socialist and urban-centric policies that impact agriculture and the agri-food sectors. Following months of farmer protests across Europe, the Green Party, previously the fourth most significant party, lost 19 seats and has now slipped to the sixth position in the EU Parliament in Brussels.

Pro-farming parties now hold more seats than the Greens. This shift suggests that Europeans are increasingly eager for Europe to compete against China and the United States to bolster its economy.

The political upheaval was particularly pronounced in France, Europe’s largest country after Germany. French President Emmanuel Macron has called for snap elections for the National Assembly, and Belgium’s President has resigned. Germany is experiencing similar turbulence, with the Social Democrats being relegated to a lower ranking.

The farmers’ revolt, which peaked in January and February of 2024 and has affected most EU member states, is fueled by escalating production costs, foreign competition, declining incomes, environmental restrictions, and onerous administrative procedures. In essence, Europe is undergoing significant turmoil, and it seems farmers’ voices are finally being heard.

From a food security standpoint, the situation in Europe is deteriorating. Extreme agricultural policies that empower the state to control farming have rendered Europe less food secure. The results of the EU election will have a profound impact on the continent’s future food security. Farmers have been burdened by bureaucratic policies and restrictive regulations dictating what and how they can produce. Government oversight has reached extremes, with satellite images used to monitor compliance with allowed crops and field activities, triggering automatic notifications if discrepancies are detected. This level of state control is unprecedented.

Even before the election, the EU Parliament was under pressure. Facing mounting tension, several environmental regulations, including pesticide rules, were either diluted or repealed. This relaxation of green objectives may indicate a broader trend with the new parliament, which could be seen as a positive development.

We have witnessed a significant shift in European regulatory approaches, causing the continent to retreat from exports and focus on self-sufficiency. For instance, Europe’s pork production, one of the world’s most popular animal proteins, is down by three million metric tons from 2021, representing 25 percent of the U.S.’ entire pork production. Grain production is also languishing, making it increasingly challenging to feed livestock.

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Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

Video: Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

A new peer reviewed study looks at the generally unrecognized risk of heat waves surpassing the threshold for enzyme damage in wheat.

Most studies that look at crop failure in the main food growing regions (breadbaskets of the planet) look at temperatures and droughts in the historical records to assess present day risk. Since the climate system has changed, these historical based risk analysis studies underestimate the present-day risks.

What this new research study does is generate an ensemble of plausible scenarios for the present climate in terms of temperatures and precipitation, and looks at how many of these plausible scenarios exceed the enzyme-breaking temperature of 32.8 C for wheat, and exceed the high stress yield reducing temperature of 27.8 C for wheat. Also, the study considers the possibility of a compounded failure with heat waves in both regions simultaneously, this greatly reducing global wheat supply and causing severe shortages.

Results show that the likelihood (risk) of wheat crop failure with a one-in-hundred likelihood in 1981 has in today’s climate become increased by 16x in the USA winter wheat crop (to one-in-six) and by 6x in northeast China (to one-in-sixteen).

The risks determined in this new paper are much greater than that obtained in previous work that determines risk by analyzing historical climate patterns.

Clearly, since the climate system is rapidly changing, we cannot assume stationarity and calculate risk probabilities like we did traditionally before.

We are essentially on a new planet, with a new climate regime, and have to understand that everything is different now.