Agriculture Canada raises 2026-27 carryout forecasts

Canadian wheat, canola and other major crop ending stock stimates for 2026-27 ending stocks were bumped up in the latest supply/demand projections from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, released Sept. 25.

The updated data incorporated model-based production estimates from Statistics Canada released Sept. 16, and the 2025-26 carryout data released Sept. 9.

Canola

• Canola ending stocks for 2026-27 were raised to 1.979 million tonnes, from 1.504 million tonnes the previous month. The old crop carryout of 1.900 million tonnes was up by 175,000 tonnes from the August estimate.
• Anticipated Canadian canola exports for 2026-27 were lowered to 7.700 million tonnes from 8.000 million tonnes in August, which compares with 8.956 million tonnes in 2025-26.
• Domestic usage is forecast to increase to 14.401 million tonnes in 2026-27, from 13.078 in the previous marketing year.

Wheat

• Wheat ending stocks 2026-27 were raised to 5.800 million tonnes, from 5.500 million tonnes in August. That would still be down from 6.650 million tonnes the previous year.
• Of the total, durum carryout stocks are forecast to increase to 1.500 million tonnes in 2026-27 from 1.102 million tonnes in 2025-26.
• AAFC is forecasting total wheat exports at 28.500 million tonnes in 2026-27, down 1.2 million tonnes on the year.

Barley

• Canadian barley ending stocks for 2026-27 were estimated at 1.000 million tonnes, which would be up by 200,000 tonnes from the August forecast and 60,000 tonnes above the 2025-26 carryout.
• Barley exports for 2026-27 were forecast at 3.500 million tonnes, which compares with 4.181 million the previous year.

Pulses

• Pea ending stocks are forecast at 1.110 million tonnes, which would be in line with the 1.182 million tonnes carried out from 2025-26.
• Lentil ending stocks for 2026-27, at 1.145 million tonnes, compare with 1.284 million tonnes the previous year.
• Pea and lentil exports are forecast to hold relatively steady on the year at 2.700 million and 2.400 million tonnes respectively.

September estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.