A Senior Risk Management Analyst with HAMS Marketing Services suggest the movement of African Swine Fever in Europe will result in shifts in the global movement of pork and products. African Swine Fever patterns have been shifting toward an endemic presence in wild boar populations in many regions.
Paul Marchand, a Senior Risk Management Analyst with HAMS Marketing Services, observes disease has an immediate impact on supply, especially if it's a reportable disease such as African Swine fever where borders start to close so it can move markets quite quickly.
Quote-Paul Marchand-HAMS Marketing Services:
Spain, for example, is the most recent one where ASF has been running fairly rampant throughout the region and they're doing their best to contain it but it's having devastating effect on Spanish pork producers. There's probably going to be some industry revitalization much like we saw with Germany after their ASF outbreak.
As you recall Germany used to be the number one pork producer in the EU. That's now taken over by Spain and the reason why Germany is not as prolific in hog production as they were is because of ASF and so there are going to be some structural changes in the European hog marketing after the eradication of the disease or if they get it under control. What's going happen with some of these sow herds?
I think we're going to see large liquidations but, are we to expect then a massive influx or massive market opportunities for our exports to go into Spain?
Probably not. About backfill opportunities for the market that Spain used to service, potentially more there.
China has been a number one customer of Spanish pork for awhile but China has been very lackluster with the U.S.A. recently and we have to keep in mind that there's a relatively new competitor coming up by the name of Brazil who's making inroads into southeast Asia and we know that Sino-U.S. relationships can be a little prickly at times.
The Brazilian and Chinese negotiators don't seem to be having that problem so I would say some of that backfill opportunity would go to Brazil rather than the U.S.A. or Canada but that's one way that a disease like ASF will affect markets.
Marchand doubts the presence of African Swine Fever in Spain it will create market opportunities in the European Union due to high regulations which have been cited as one of the main barriers to market access.
Source : Farmscape.ca