Canadian barley stocks as of July 31 hit a new record low, although were still higher than expected, while oat stocks increased.
A Statistics Canada grain stocks report on Wednesday pegged national barley stockpiles as of the end of the 2020-21 marketing year at 711,100 tonnes, down 25.7% from the previous year and taking out the previous low of 863,000 tonnes established in July 2019. However, today’s StatsCan estimate still easily topped Agriculture Canada’s August supply-demand forecast, which put 2020-21 barley ending stocks at just 500,000 tonnes.
Meanwhile, oat stocks as of July 31 were reported at 658,500 tonnes, an increase of 54.7% from last year and also above last month’s Ag Canada projection of 350,000 tonnes.
The year-over-year decrease in barley stocks was attributable to both lower on-farm (-19.9% to 551,300 tonnes) and commercial (-40.5% to 159,800 tonnes) stocks.
Deliveries of barley off-farm increased 17.4% to 5.1 million tonnes, contributing to the decrease in on-farm stocks. Barley exports were up 54.8% on the year to 4.6 million tonnes, with more than 90% destined for China. On the other hand, barley used for feed fell 10.6% year over year to 6.1 million tonnes as of July 31.
Implied barley use for the March 31 – July 31 2021 period was 2.295 million tonnes, down from 2.574 million during the same period last year.
Alberta on-farm stocks as of July 31 dropped to 302,000 tonnes from 370,000 a year earlier, while Saskatchewan farm stocks fell to 147,000 tonnes from 212,000. Manitoba on-farm barley stocks were unchanged on the year at 73,000 tonnes.
The larger July 31 oat stocks estimate was driven by higher commercial (+41.3% to 307,900 tonnes) and on-farm (+68.8% to 350,600 tonnes) supplies.
Implied oat use for the March 31 – July 31, 2021 period amounted to 1.185 million tonnes, down from 1.42 million the previous year. However, oat exports for 2020-21 were still up 12.2% to 2.9 million tonnes, surpassing 2008 as the highest year on record.
On-farm oat stocks increased in all three Prairie provinces compared to a year earlier. Saskatchewan stocks increased to 184,000 tonnes from 83,000, Alberta stocks climbed to 103,000 tonnes from 72,000 and Manitoba stocks inches up to 40,000 tonnes from 35,000.Click here to see more...