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Canola markets have been making a shift

Canola markets have been very bearish over the last few months.

Senior Market Analyst with MarketsFarm Mike Jubenville says we've seen some correction in the last month, adding he's optimistic that we'll see some positive opportunities through the Spring.

"This bounce has yielded some $14.00 a bushel opportunities, at least briefly, for everywhere on the prairies, but some areas are as much as $14.50 a bushel. I think that probably triggered a fair wave of farmer selling that sort of satisfied the immediate commercial market concerns at the moment, but certainly more is is yet to come."

Stats Can 2023 production estimates for canola have come in at 18.3 million metric tonnes, while the trade puts it closer to 19 million.

He notes crush numbers for 2022-23 at 10 and a half million metric tonnes, something he thinks we'll see an increase in for this year to around 10.9 million.

"Crush plant expansions, solid margins. You know, the North American processors (and I''m  including the U.S. in this as well) they have the highest propensity to pay for canola seed. So for this traditional food and this emerging renewable diesel sector that is coming along to make demand for vegetable oils. I'm assuming this probably be at least one of these Prairie plant expansions or opening a new plant is probably going to be commissioned sometime later this year. So it's going to add to certainly our crush capacity here in Western Canada that will be building significantly over the next two or three years."

Jubinvillw points out that since the 2021 drought and limited production we've had to constrain exports which increased prices and meant world buyers have looked at other products like soybeans or moved to other markets like Australia to meet their needs.

As for new crop pricing opportunities he says he'd be encouraged at $15 bushel if that comes around.

Source : Pembinavalley online

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