March placements up but no signs of herd expansion yet
The USDA’s April Cattle on Feed report, released a day early due to Good Friday, showed a 1.6% drop in feedlot inventory from April 2024, estimating 11.6 million head. These estimates cover U.S. feedlots with over 1,000 head, which make up over 80% of the nation’s total.
Since November 2024, feedlot inventories have remained lower than the previous year, a trend likely to continue as calf crops shrink. March marketings were 1% higher than in 2024 and nearly matched pre-report expectations. The most notable figure, however, was March placements, which increased by 5%. This rise may be linked to poor February weather delaying cattle movement and strong prices encouraging earlier sales.
Even though placements were high in March, overall placements for the first quarter of 2025 were 4% lower than the same period in 2024. The quarterly report also broke down steer and heifer numbers. Steer counts remained steady, while heifers dropped by 4%, making up 37.6% of the total inventory. This level does not suggest widespread heifer retention or herd expansion.
Pasture conditions in spring and summer will be crucial in determining if retention increases. Calf prices are high, but rain remains essential. Beef cow slaughter remains low compared to 2024, indicating a slowdown in cowherd liquidation. However, heifer retention is not yet strong enough to suggest herd expansion.
For now, experts expect beef cow numbers to either stay flat or decrease slightly through 2025.
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