Chicago Close: Soybeans Remain Under Pressure from China Export Business with Argentina

Sep 24, 2025

Soybean futures remained under pressure on Wednesday amid more Chinese export business with Argentina. Corn also ticked lower on the day, while wheat was mixed.

The Argentine government surprised on Monday with an announcement it was suspending its export taxes on a variety of ag products – including soybeans – until the end of October. The move resulted in a flurry of Chinese purchases of Argentine beans on Tuesday, a buying trend that continued into today. With China stocking up on soybeans from Brazil and now Argentina, the world’s largest soybean buyer is continuing to bypass American supplies. November soybeans fell 3 cents to $10.09, and January lost 3 ¼ cents to $10.28 ½.

Corn followed soybeans lower, although the market continued to be underpinned by just mixed US yield reports from the field. December and March corn each closed 2 cents lower to settle at $4.24 ¼, and $4.41.

Wheat was mainly weighed down by corn and soybean losses, although short covering and bargain buying did offer some support. December Chicago wheat fell a penny to $5.19 ½, and December Kansas City dropped 4 ¾ cents to $5.06 ¾. December Hard Red Spring was up 4 ¼ cents at $5.42 ½, and December Minneapolis was steady at $5.67 ¾.

Click here to see more...

Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.