Cotton Prices Head North To “Testing Ground”

Apr 10, 2015

By Don Shurley

As we get closer to beginning to put the 2015 crop in the ground around most of the Cotton Belt, prices for both old crop and new crop are improving—as we thought and hoped they would. Old crop May futures approach 67 cents and new crop December is at roughly 66 cents.

Sometimes, marketing is about picking your battles and knowing when the odds are in your favor. No one knows with high certainty what the market will do; all you can do is sell and make decisions armed with the best information available, manage risk, and profit to farm another year. I believe in two strategies—(1) sell the crop in portions as the market dictates and (2) reward the market by selling when the market improves and puts the odds in your favor.

Old crop has clearly broken through what was considered a “ceiling” at 65 cents. This is always considered a positive sign that the market has strengthened. This improvement has been largely fueled by continued strength in export sales, shrinking stocks outside of China, and US and other weather concerns. There is opinion/belief that old crop prices will likely continue to trek higher—particularly for good quality fiber. Such a move would be a “testing ground” for prices. Prices haven’t been above 65 cents for any sustained period of time since last August and September. My advice—pick your battles.

Today’s USDA monthly production and supply/demand numbers were ho-hum but there were some surprises. We’ll have to see if this slows the bull down some. As expected, the US crop was increased slightly from 16.08 to 16.3 million bales. Most analysts also expected to see, however, an increase in the export number. That didn’t happen. Projected exports for the 2014 crop year remain at 10.7 million bales. US ending stocks were increased from 4.2 to 4.4 million bales.

Total World numbers for 2014/15 were essentially unchanged. Worth noting was that China’s imports were increased 200K bales and China’s ending stocks were increased slightly. Reports have circulated recently citing a reduction in price support for Xinjiang, a major growing region. Reports have also suggested China cotton acreage and production to be down 20% this year. The major question is—will this mean Chinese mills will utilize more of the countries stocks and/or does it mean China will still have a reasonably good demand for imports of quality cotton? I believe this is key to 2015 crop price direction.

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Video: Evolution of Beef Cattle Farming

The Clear Conversations podcast took to the road for a special episode recorded in Nashville during CattleCon, bringing listeners straight into the heart of the cattle industry. Host Tracy Sellers welcomed rancher Steve Wooten of Beatty Canyon Ranch in Colorado for a wide-ranging discussion that blended family history and sustainability, particularly as it relates to the future of beef production.

Sustainability emerged as a central theme of the conversation, a word that Wooten acknowledges can mean very different things depending on who you ask. For him, sustainability starts with the soil. Healthy soil produces healthy grass, which supports efficient cattle capable of producing year after year with minimal external inputs. It’s an approach that equally considers vegetation, animal efficiency, and long-term profitability.

That philosophy aligned naturally with Wooten’s involvement in the U.S. Roundtable for Sustainable Beef, where he served as a representative for the Colorado Cattlemen’s Association. The roundtable brings together the entire beef supply chain—from producers to retailers—along with universities, NGOs, and allied industries. Its goal is not regulation, Wooten emphasized, but collaboration, shared learning, and continuous improvement.