Cotton Prices Head North To “Testing Ground”

Apr 10, 2015

By Don Shurley

As we get closer to beginning to put the 2015 crop in the ground around most of the Cotton Belt, prices for both old crop and new crop are improving—as we thought and hoped they would. Old crop May futures approach 67 cents and new crop December is at roughly 66 cents.

Sometimes, marketing is about picking your battles and knowing when the odds are in your favor. No one knows with high certainty what the market will do; all you can do is sell and make decisions armed with the best information available, manage risk, and profit to farm another year. I believe in two strategies—(1) sell the crop in portions as the market dictates and (2) reward the market by selling when the market improves and puts the odds in your favor.

Old crop has clearly broken through what was considered a “ceiling” at 65 cents. This is always considered a positive sign that the market has strengthened. This improvement has been largely fueled by continued strength in export sales, shrinking stocks outside of China, and US and other weather concerns. There is opinion/belief that old crop prices will likely continue to trek higher—particularly for good quality fiber. Such a move would be a “testing ground” for prices. Prices haven’t been above 65 cents for any sustained period of time since last August and September. My advice—pick your battles.

Today’s USDA monthly production and supply/demand numbers were ho-hum but there were some surprises. We’ll have to see if this slows the bull down some. As expected, the US crop was increased slightly from 16.08 to 16.3 million bales. Most analysts also expected to see, however, an increase in the export number. That didn’t happen. Projected exports for the 2014 crop year remain at 10.7 million bales. US ending stocks were increased from 4.2 to 4.4 million bales.

Total World numbers for 2014/15 were essentially unchanged. Worth noting was that China’s imports were increased 200K bales and China’s ending stocks were increased slightly. Reports have circulated recently citing a reduction in price support for Xinjiang, a major growing region. Reports have also suggested China cotton acreage and production to be down 20% this year. The major question is—will this mean Chinese mills will utilize more of the countries stocks and/or does it mean China will still have a reasonably good demand for imports of quality cotton? I believe this is key to 2015 crop price direction.

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Video: Dicamba Returns for Georgia Farmers: What the New EPA Ruling Means for Cotton Growers

After being unavailable in 2024 due to registration issues, dicamba products are returning for Georgia farmers this growing season — but under strict new conditions.

In this report from Tifton, Extension Weed Specialist Stanley Culpepper explains the updated EPA ruling, including new application limits, mandatory training requirements, and the need for a restricted use pesticide license. Among the key changes: a cap of two ½-pound applications per year and the required use of an approved volatility reduction agent with every application.

For Georgia cotton producers, the ruling is significant. According to Taylor Sills with the Georgia Cotton Commission, the vast majority of cotton planted in the state carries the dicamba-tolerant trait — meaning farmers had been paying for technology they couldn’t use.

While environmental groups have expressed concerns over spray drift, Georgia growers have reduced off-target pesticide movement by more than 91% over the past decade. Still, this two-year registration period will come with increased scrutiny, making stewardship and compliance more important than ever.