The United States lost the title of No. 1 corn exporter to Brazil last year when the South American country harvested a breakthrough crop, just months after China gave the green light to Brazilian corn imports.
As such, Chinese interest in U.S. corn has slowed significantly in the past year or so, but Brazil’s next corn harvest is expected to be smaller than its recent one, potentially allowing plentiful U.S. supplies to regain share in global trade.
Prolonged dryness in the United States this year prevented what surely would have been a record corn harvest, though plentiful acres still allowed the 2023 crop to rise 10% on the year, approaching all-time highs. This should restore comfortable U.S. supply levels.
However, crop ideas for Brazil and China in 2023-24 vary across the industry. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday maintained 2023-24 Brazilian corn production at 129 million metric tons, identical to the initial May projection. That is down from a record 137 million tons in 2022-23.
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