Data is key to the future of Canadian ag

Jan 27, 2023

The Enterprise Machine Intelligence Learning Initiative (EMILI) and Assiniboine Community College (ACC) are working together on ag-tech innovation and education.

The two hope to increase digital skills to address labour shortages in the ag sector.

Studies show that Canada’s ag sector could be facing a shortage of 123,000 workers by 2030.

RBC's Farmer 4.0 Report suggests that the advanced technologies
emerging across agriculture and sub-sectors will change the skills needed in the sector over the next decade.

EMILI and ACC will be working on the development of data literacy training programs, increasing work-integrated learning opportunities, and testing new technologies to ensure they work on the farm.

In recent years, the two have been focused on the potential of digital agriculture in the prairies.

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Video: Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

A new peer reviewed study looks at the generally unrecognized risk of heat waves surpassing the threshold for enzyme damage in wheat.

Most studies that look at crop failure in the main food growing regions (breadbaskets of the planet) look at temperatures and droughts in the historical records to assess present day risk. Since the climate system has changed, these historical based risk analysis studies underestimate the present-day risks.

What this new research study does is generate an ensemble of plausible scenarios for the present climate in terms of temperatures and precipitation, and looks at how many of these plausible scenarios exceed the enzyme-breaking temperature of 32.8 C for wheat, and exceed the high stress yield reducing temperature of 27.8 C for wheat. Also, the study considers the possibility of a compounded failure with heat waves in both regions simultaneously, this greatly reducing global wheat supply and causing severe shortages.

Results show that the likelihood (risk) of wheat crop failure with a one-in-hundred likelihood in 1981 has in today’s climate become increased by 16x in the USA winter wheat crop (to one-in-six) and by 6x in northeast China (to one-in-sixteen).

The risks determined in this new paper are much greater than that obtained in previous work that determines risk by analyzing historical climate patterns.

Clearly, since the climate system is rapidly changing, we cannot assume stationarity and calculate risk probabilities like we did traditionally before.

We are essentially on a new planet, with a new climate regime, and have to understand that everything is different now.