Dec. 1 US Hog Herd Larger than Expected

The latest Hogs and Pigs report from the USDA showed a larger American herd than many in the trade were expecting. 

Released Tuesday, the report pegged the total number of hogs and pigs on US farms at 75.5 million head, up 1% from a year earlier and slightly higher than September levels. That compares with pre-report expectations that total inventory would decline by roughly 1%. Market hog numbers rose 1% year over year to 69.6 million head, defying forecasts that pegged market hogs down close to 1%. 

Breeding inventory totaled 5.95 million head, down 1% from last year but slightly higher than the previous quarter. Analysts had anticipated a deeper cut to the breeding herd — closer to a 1.2% decline. 

The September–November pig crop came in at 35 million head, up slightly from 2024, versus trade estimates calling for a 1.3% year-over-year decline. Productivity gains continued, with pigs per litter averaging 11.93, essentially unchanged from last year and slightly below expectations for a stronger increase. 

Looking ahead, producers intend to farrow 2.89 million sows in the December–February quarter and 2.91 million in March–May, both up 2% from last year. 

Hog futures closed higher today, prior to the release of the hogs and pigs report.