It’s difficult to argue that climate change isn’t the most pressing threat to our agri-food sector. Farmers, processors, distributors, retailers and transporters have all been forced to adapt in real time to extreme weather events, shifting growing seasons and volatile conditions. From droughts to floods to wildfires, climate change has tested the resilience of every link in the food supply chain.
Yet, for all the challenges the sector has faced – and will continue to face – due to climate pressures, it has managed to cope reasonably well. Investments in technology, new crop varieties, smarter logistics and infrastructure upgrades have helped absorb many of the shocks. But there is another looming threat – quieter, slower, and far more difficult to reverse – that few in the industry appear prepared for: depopulation.
At its core, the food industry is built on one assumption: that there will always be more mouths to feed. Growth in population has long been a proxy for market growth. The logic is simple – more people mean more demand for calories, more diversity in food preferences, and more spending across the value chain. Many strategies across the sector are driven by the idea of expanding ‘stomach share’ – a concept that assumes a continually expanding consumer base.
But what happens when that base begins to shrink?
More than 60 countries around the world are already experiencing population decline, and that number is expected to exceed 100 within the next 25 years. Fertility rates are falling below replacement levels across much of Europe, East Asia and even parts of Latin America. Japan, Italy, South Korea, Bulgaria and many others are already seeing their populations shrink year over year. Aging populations and lower birth rates are creating labour shortages, weakening tax bases and reshaping national economies.
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