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Domestic Canola Usage Revised Down, but Still Up on Year

Domestic canola demand remained well ahead of exports in the latest Canadian Grain Commission report for the week ended Jan. 12, but revisions to data show that the crush pace is not quite as active as reported earlier in the month.
 
The original data for the week ended Jan. 5 showed domestic canola disappearance of 4.8 million tonnes for the 2019/20 crop-year-to-date, up about 1 million tonnes above the year-ago level and above the 3.7 million tonnes of canola exported during the same timeframe.
 
As processing usually makes up the majority of the ‘domestic disappearance’ line, industry participants questioned whether or not the crush pace was really that far ahead on the year. The CGC later confirmed that reporting errors skewed the data, and provided revisions in the report released Jan. 16.
 
With the revisions, total domestic disappearance as of week 23 of the crop year now comes in at 4.7 million tonnes, still 700,000 tonnes ahead of the previous year’s pace.
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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.