AEM Reports 25% Drop in 100HP+ Tractor Sales, 80% Decline in Combines for January

According to the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM), North American retail sales for agricultural equipment saw significant declines in January, particularly in larger tractor segments and combines.

• Sales of 100HP+ tractors were down 25% year-over-year (YoY), with 1,266 units sold. The decline was more pronounced in the U.S., where sales dropped 27% YoY, compared to a 13% YoY decrease in Canada. Meanwhile, 4WD tractor sales fell 41% YoY to 160 units, with the U.S. seeing a 55% YoY drop, while Canada declined 20% YoY. In total, 2WD tractor sales across North America were down 14% YoY, with the <40HP category down 10% YoY and 40-100HP tractors down 16% YoY.
• The downturn was even steeper for combines, with North American sales plummeting 80% YoY to just 118 units in January. U.S. combine sales fell 79% YoY, while Canadian sales were down 83% YoY.
• Inventory trends also shifted YoY, with the inventory-to-sales ratio for 100HP+ tractors increasing to 5.6 months, while the same metric for combines declined to 1.6 months. Total 100HP+ tractor inventories in North America fell 1% YoY, driven by a 3% YoY decline in the U.S., while Canada saw an 8% increase. In contrast, combine inventories were down 40% YoY, with a 44% decline in the U.S. and a 26% drop in Canada.
• Looking ahead, industry forecasts suggest continued pressure on large ag equipment sales throughout 2025. AGCO anticipates a ~25% decline in North American large ag equipment sales, while CNH projects high-horsepower tractor sales to drop 25-30% and combine sales to decline 20-25%. Deere forecasts a ~30% drop for large ag equipment and ~10% decline for small ag and turf machinery in the U.S. and Canada for FY25.