Sentiment worsens as war continues

Farmer sentiment worsened in April as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index declined from 127 in March to 121. The Current Conditions Index decreased by 11 points, while the Future Expectations Index decreased by 4 points. This month’s Future Expectations Index was 16 points less than the December 2025 index and 28 points less than the April 2025 index.

The percentage of respondents who listed inflated input costs as their biggest concern remained at 46 percent this month, while the percentage who listed input availability as their biggest concern increased from 11 percent to 14 percent. The percentage of respondents who think the United States is headed in the “right direction” and who expect land prices to be more five years from now also decreased. The April barometer survey was conducted April 13-17 among 400 farmers across the nation.

Only 15 percent of respondents indicated their farm operations were better off in April than they had been a year ago. Looking ahead to the next 12 months, 28 percent expected worse financial performance, compared with 25 percent who expected better financial performance. The Farm Capital Investment Index decreased 9 points to 44, its worst level since October 2024, indicating a decline in willingness to make large investments.

This month’s survey included questions related to the impact of the Iran conflict on net farm income and corn-breakeven prices in 2026. About two-thirds of the respondents expected their net farm income to decline in 2026 due to the Iran conflict, which began in late February and affected fertilizer and natural gas prices worldwide.

Among respondents who planted corn in 2025, about one-half expected corn-breakeven prices to increase by as much as 6 percent, 14 percent expected breakeven prices to increase 6 percent to 9 percent, and 37 percent expected breakeven prices to increase 10 percent or more.

Periodically the monthly survey includes questions pertaining to a farm’s competitive position and its ability to manage strategic risk. This month’s survey asked respondents how strongly they agreed or disagreed with the following statement. “We have low per-unit fixed costs relative to our most efficient peers.” About 58 percent of respondents agreed with the statement, with 9 percent indicating they strongly agreed.