Farmer Sentiment Improves in January

U.S. farmers retained their post-election optimistic outlook at the start of the new year as the January Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index rose 5 points above a month earlier to a reading of 141. The barometer’s rise was primarily attributable to a 9-point rise in the Current Conditions Index, while the Future Expectations Index rose just 3 points. Compared to recent surveys, fewer producers this month pointed to lower crop and livestock prices as a top concern, which helped explain why producers felt better about the current situation. The shift in attitudes was attributable in part to an improvement in crop prices from the time of the December to the January survey. For example, Eastern Corn Belt prices for near-term delivery of corn and soybeans rose 9% and 5%, respectively, from early December to mid-January. Although producers’ appraisal of the current situation improved in January, U.S. farmers remain markedly more optimistic about the future than the current situation, as the Future Expectations Index this month was still 47 points above the Current Conditions Index. The January barometer survey took place from January 13-17, 2025.

In a note to investors J.P. Morgan analyst Tami Zakaria wrote, “Producers' concerns about lower crop and livestock prices have diminished compared to recent surveys, contributing to a more positive outlook on the current situation. This shift is partly due to improved crop prices, with Eastern Corn Belt prices for near-term delivery of corn and soybeans increasing by 9% and 5%, respectively, from early December to mid-January. Despite this improvement, U.S. farmers remain significantly more optimistic about the future than the present, as indicated by the Future Expectations Index being 47 points higher than the Current Conditions Index.