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Farmers Pretty Well Done With Harvest in Alberta

The final crop report issued this month by Alberta Agriculture says that despite the colder weather in the bottom half of the month, there was harvest progress made.
 
It reported that 99 percent of crops were in the bin, well ahead of the five and 10 year averages. The forecast is calling for some warm windy conditions this week, which should help those producers who are still trying to get finished. In our region, there are about 97 per cent of the crops in the bin.  Looks like the quality of wheat in our area are looking good with 94 per cent of the hard red spring wheat and 100 per cent of durum in the top two grades.  Other crop qualities are strong as well.  
 
Soil moisture reserves varied greatly throughout the province with pockets of one in 50 year lows in Central, Northwest and peace regions. There are a few dry areas north of Hanna and west of the QE II Highway in the central zone.  Some very dry areas around Beiseker and Irricana.  Producers will be looking for winter snow in parts of all regions to help replenish the soil moisture in preparation for planting next spring. 
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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.