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Five Destinations Accounted for 59% of All U.S. Ag Exports

 
The United States exported $138 billion worth of agricultural goods in 2017. Since 2015, annual export value has increased each year, but is still down from a record of $150 billion in 2014. 
 
Although the United States exports agricultural goods to most countries worldwide, for the last 3 decades, close to 60 percent of the value of U.S. agricultural exports has gone to five major trading partners: Canada, China, Mexico, the European Union (EU-28), and Japan. 
 
In 2017, this pattern persisted, with 59 percent going to these five markets. The dominance of key U.S. markets occurs for a number of reasons. In the cases of Canada and Mexico, proximity to the United States plays a large role in their trade relationships, and regional trade agreements have further increased trade between the United States and these neighbors. 
 
In the cases of China, Japan, and the EU-28, the sheer size of the economies involved is the key factor determining trade shares: after the United States, the EU-28, China, and Japan have the highest gross domestic products, and each of these countries accounts for a significant share of global imports of agricultural goods. 
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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.